Q2 2025 Market Outlook

Rapid Recalibration
Q2 2025 Market Outlook

“Even the finest sword plunged into salt water will eventually rust.”- Sun Tzu

We entered the year cautiously bullish and flagged a policy error as a big potential risk to derail the market bull run – and boy, did that play out in Q1. While tax cuts, spending, or any sense of what the budget will look like is stuck in Congress, the market has been subjected to a large-scale game of chicken over tariff and trade which has raised the anxiety level significantly. Potential shifting alliances may pivot the US away from Europe and more towards Asia and Russia which could disrupt trade further if Europe pivots away from US trade in retaliation. The quick market sentiment change has caused the Magnificent 7 to pull an Icarus, flying too high and falling sharply down to earth. As we are preparing to enter Q2, all we can advise is to be comfortable being uncomfortable this year.

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March 2025 Market Brief – Divergent Deglobalization

With the tariff war heating up from a simmer to a boil, it’s a good time to take a step back and look at how the world has shifted in the last few decades. The trend of de-globalization and onshoring (or near-shoring) has been accelerating since the global financial crisis and moving even faster in a post-COVID world. The pandemic showed just how vulnerable far-flung supply chains can be to disruption, which caused many companies to begin building in redundancies and bringing manufacturing closer to home. We would argue that peak global trade happened in the early 2000’s and since then, the world has been shifting away from free global trade.

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CNBC Worldwide Exchange – Greene: Technological advancements and lower costs lead to increased adoption and demand

Victoria Greene, founding partner and CIO at G Squared Private Wealth, discusses the recent market sell-off and emphasizes Jevons Paradox, explaining that technological advancements and lower costs lead to increased adoption and demand.

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