Rapid Recalibration
Q2 2025 Market Outlook
âEven the finest sword plunged into salt water will eventually rust.â- Sun Tzu
We entered the year cautiously bullish and flagged a policy error as a big potential risk to derail the market bull run â and boy, did that play out in Q1. While tax cuts, spending, or any sense of what the budget will look like is stuck in Congress, the market has been subjected to a large-scale game of chicken over tariff and trade which has raised the anxiety level significantly. Potential shifting alliances may pivot the US away from Europe and more towards Asia and Russia which could disrupt trade further if Europe pivots away from US trade in retaliation. The quick market sentiment change has caused the Magnificent 7 to pull an Icarus, flying too high and falling sharply down to earth. As we are preparing to enter Q2, all we can advise is to be comfortable being uncomfortable this year.
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