Q3 2025 Market Outlook
The Only Easy Day Was Yesterday
Q3 2025 Market Outlook
“But I’m not crazy, I’m just a little unwell/ I know right now you can’t tell/ But stay a while and maybe then you’ll see/ A different side of me./ I’m not crazy, I’m just a little impaired/ I know right now you don’t care/ But soon enough you’re gonna think of me/ And how I used to be.” – Matchbox 20, Unwell
Q2 has been Dickens-esque – the best of times and the worst of times – all in the span of 90 days. While the net overall movement in most markets has been benign, it hides the vast amount of volatility and angst suffered during this quarter. A blink-and-you-missed-it bear market (on an intra-day basis) as well as continued shifting of policy sands has transformed 2025 from a comfortable bull market to navigating a mine field. We remain cautiously bullish, but wary of knee jerk reactions to policy announcements. Buried beneath the tweets are corporations still growing earnings and it’s hard to have a full recession while corporate profits are still growing.