IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS AND INSIGHTS DELIVERED MONTHLY

At approximately 2am Friday Evening 1/2/26, US forces launched a large scale “air, land and sea” military attack on Venezuela involving at least 150 aircraft and capturing current President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, who are currently on route to New York to be held and charged on drug crimes. The Justice Department is charging them, and 5 others with roles in the drug-trafficking network called Cartel de los Soles and helping move large shipments of cocaine to the USA. This is one of the first US led regime changes in the last 30 years and does follow the script of “Operation Just Cause” in Jan 1990 to remove Manuel Noriega from Panama. And in a twist of fate, the arrest occurred 36 years to the day of the arrest of Manuel Noriega.

Learn More from Special Update – What Happened In Venezuela?

While seasonality and technical patterns can sometimes be a bit much – it seems like there is an indicator for EVERYTHING these days – there is a reason so many people follow them: they can work. As we approach the last few trading weeks of the year there are 3 famous indicators to look out for which may give insights into what is brewing in 2026. Data presented here was taken from the 2026 Stock Trader’s Almanac written by Jeffrey Hirsch.

Learn More from December 2025 Brief – Coal or Candy?

The holiday season is a great time to slow down, spend time with family, and share a few drinks together. Wine and champagne are often at the top of people’s lists this time of year, but with many feeling the inflation pinch, finding quality beverages at a good value has become crucial. My favorite place to shop for wine is, surprisingly, Costco!

Learn More from Value Investing – The Kirkland Signature Way

October has, so far, lived up to its spooky season moniker as markets fret over a barrage of bad news on multiple fronts. Yet equities continue to be resilient in the face of an unending stream of bad news. To summarize the macro environment: it’s ugly.
• First Brands & Tricolor bankruptcies shaking the banking and private credit markets. Are we looking at a looming banking crisis and deluge of bad loans?
• JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon warning on risks in private credit, stating glibly “when you see one cockroach there are probably more.”
• Government has been shut down for 20+ days with no end in sight. Most government employees have already missed one paycheck 10/15, and 10/31 looking awfully suspect. It’s estimated between 50-65% of the USA lives paycheck to paycheck, which could have a large impact on consumer spending.
• Trade war with China moved from a simmer back to a boil. Tariff threats abound.
• Argentina needed a $20B+ lifeline from the USA to stay afloat with its currency down -30% this year sparking concerns on possible debt defaults and contagion across Latin America.

Learn More from October 2025 Brief – The Return of Volatility

With Labor Day officially wrapping up summer, and our attention turning to fall activities such as football and cooler weather, so too the market may be looking to turn. Many US markets are trading at, or near, record highs leaving little wiggle room for bad news or disruption of any sort. Historically, September is the weakest seasonal month of the year. But before you start pulling the eject lever on the bull market, take a step back and realize any sell-off we have is likely to be short lived. However, I would be prepared for a -5% to -7% pullback. Seasonality tells us to be ready for a drop. The last 5 years, the S&P 500 has averaged a -4.17% return in September – by far the weakest month on record with it being negative 4 of the last 5 years. Over 10 years, September has returned -1.96% with 6 out of 10 years negative, and over 20 years it’s -0.65%. But if you look ahead at what the winter may bring, November is the strongest month of the year and historically we have rallied out the year. Over the last 20 years, October, November, and December all average positive returns, and November-April is the strongest 6-month period in the year.

Learn More from September 2025 Brief – A Fall Fall?

When travelling the choice of where to eat lunch is often driven by convenience and availability. The sandwich chain Subway is often a satisfactory stop – typically clean, quick, and you know what you will get. The food is not inspiring but it’s acceptable. But does anyone really feel excited about stopping at Subway for lunch? Not particularly. It’s an easy and fast choice, one that everyone is ok with but, honestly, nobody is writing home about. That is the way we feel about this economy. The data is fine, overall health is acceptable and palatable, but nothing really pops out as exciting or strong about it. Broad based, the economy feels ok but uninspired, weathering tariffs but not taking off either. The quintessential Subway sandwich economy – unremarkable.

Learn More from August 2025 Brief – The Subway Sandwich Economy

Tariff war 2.0 is right around the corner; on August 1st, blanket tariffs on imports from at least 14 countries are set to take place absent new trade deals. Markets are starting to get a bit worried that this will play out like April’s Liberation Day announcements on 4/2. Back in April, the S&P 500 fell over -11% in 3 days before a 90-day reprieve for negotiation was announced. We are back into a similar situation with August 1st now the deadline to watch and many proposed tariff rates actually higher than the 4/2 initial rates.

Learn More from July 2025 Brief – USA vs. Everybody Else

Artificial Intelligence is proving it will change the world, but one area AI cannot address is our emotions and behaviors as humans. “Robo-advisors” first popped up following the 2008 financial crisis and sought to leverage AI to offer low-cost financial advice and investment management. However, many people are uncomfortable with the idea of a robot advising them about something as important to their livelihood as their money. And like it or not, money is emotional.

Learn More from June 2025 Brief – Managing Your Money and Your Emotions

Tariffs have become the primary talking point when it comes to the economy and investment strategy in 2025. With news constantly shifting over which deals are on, or off, the table, one thing seems certain; foreign goods have been getting more expensive. As the hot summer weather approaches, it’s worth considering how these tariffs may impact something that helps you keep cool and entertained: your beverage of choice. Whether you’re lounging on a beach or hiding indoors with the AC on full blast, you might find your favorite CH₃CH₂OH-infused drink costing more this summer. One way to avoid many of these rising costs? Reach for good ol’ American-made products on the shelf.

Learn More from May 2025 Brief – Red, White, & Brew

The tariff shock continues to reverberate throughout the market with the Trump administration continuing to defend its actions, focusing on, “sometimes you have to take medicine” as they seek to rebalance trade deficits and re-shore manufacturing and production back to the USA. This is a rapidly developing situation that is likely to see further downside until we get some negotiations. Tariffs are likely here to stay, even if they are rolled back less onerous.

Learn More from April 2025 Market Brief – Anatomy of a Bear