MARKET RECAPS, FUTURE TRENDS AND QUARTERLY INSIGHTS

“Prepare for the unknown by studying how other in the past have coped with the unforeseeable and the unpredictable.” – General George. S Patton

2022 has been a very difficult year for investors. Gone are the easy returns of the last decade, and doubt is creeping in about what the next decade may hold. The world feels fairly terrible at this point in time. Political discourse in the United States is feverish, the country feels divided and broken, and Black Swans seem to be lurking in every corner of the market. The list of what-ifs feels daunting and overwhelming. It may help to step back and review the current state of markets against a historical backdrop. Remember, the United States of America has made it through difficult periods in the past, and we warn against the most dangerous phrase, “this time it’s different.”

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The stages of a bear market often mirror the grieving process. Denial at first, followed by anger, bargaining, depression [current stage] and finally, acceptance. For investors, frequently instead of acceptance there is an overwhelming desire to capitulate. The world feels darkest before the dawn, but it is terrifying in the dark. Controlling our fear of the future, the unknown, and the losses piling up can be difficult. None of us have a crystal ball, but we do our best to make predictions about the future based on sound historical data and patterns. We warned back in March we thought we would have a recession and a bear market, and now that we are bearing the brunt of a bear market, the million-dollar question is when do we hit bottom?

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Without a doubt, what is happening in Ukraine is a tragedy and a reminder of the fragile balance of the World. Due to the continued conflict, sanctions, and inflation, we are revising down our 2022 market outlook from Moderately Bullish to Moderately Bearish. G Squared now feels we will have a recession in the next 18-24 months. This does not mean an automatic repeat of 2008. We may have a milder recession; however, we feel it’s important to downshift into more defensive portfolio positions.

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2022 is the year of the Tiger according to Chinese astrology. The Tiger is a symbol of strength, exorcising evils and braveness. After the past two years, exorcising evils seems like a fitting theme for 2022. As we limp into the final days of 2021, it has been filled with a Ying-and-Yang dichotomy of good and bad making it a taxing year for many. 

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Moore’s Law states that the number of transistors on a microchip double about every two years, though the cost of computers is halved. Gordon E. Moore was the co-founder of Intel and made this observation in 1965. The basic tenant being that the growth of microprocessors is exponential.

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As we look forward to the second half of 2021, the world seems torn between optimism about reopening and economic growth, and despair over inflation and the Fed’s potential courses of action. Like most things, the truth most likely lies in the middle between hope and pessimism.

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Life begins again, for most Americans, at vaccination dose two. It is entertaining to think about what we will do with newly granted freedom of movement; seeing family is often top of the list, followed close behind by travel. As we all look forward to turning the page on COVID, we should realize this restart is not necessarily pushing us back to normal but forging forward into the new normal. So, what might 2021 have in store for us? We outline 5 main themes for the rest of the year: Improving Economy, Pent up Demand, Inflation Fears, COVID Trends to Stick Around, and Market Bubble Questions.

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As we turn the page on 2020 and look forward to a new and better year, it is hard not to feel anxiety about our future. The “what-if” virus has bitten us hard this year, as for the first time in a long time, the worst-case scenarios that run through our heads were realized, if not over-delivered.

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There is a light at the end of the tunnel. The end of 2020 is finally within sight as we head into the 4th Quarter home stretch. At least we are finally unified in something — our collective loathing for the plague this year has become. But, before we can start to close the books on 2020, we have at least one more major chapter: the elections.

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Einstein was right about the feeling of time being relative. 2020 feels like it has been at least a decade, but in reality, we are only approaching the halfway point. This year has surprised us and terrified us; shown us hardship and sacrifice not felt since the World Wars and made us evaluate our priorities and lives.

Learn More from 2020 Q3 Market Update