March Brief – March Madness

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March is always a fickle month – from the weather to the markets – we know to expect volatility and a bit of misery. History tells us there will be a violent storm or two along the way, making sure we feel the pain of winter or a pullback one more time before a Spring revival. March is also home to the NCAA Men’s & Women’s Basketball Tournament called March Madness, which for a math nerd is a statistical wonderland. The odds of a perfect bracket are 1 in 9.2 quintillion (9.2×1018), meaning you are 4 million times more likely to get struck by lightning than picking a perfect bracket. With that backdrop, we add in some extra spice with the troubles brewing in the Private Credit market and a full-blown regional war in the Middle East. Wars often come with a sharp drop in the markets, but we warn, historically, wars do not start bear markets – even if the risk feels high. Do not allow all the “what-ifs” to build into a crescendo that override the basic market dictation: buy low, sell high. Never panic sell.

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February Brief – All That Glitters

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While US equity markets have been treading water more than rallying this year, one area of the market that continues to be strong is precious metals. Even with the Silver & Gold meltdown a few weeks ago, which saw Silver prices plummet -30% in a day and Gold -17% dragging down most precious metals, both commodities are still strongly positive on the year and outperforming stocks, bonds, real estate, agricultural commodities and energy commodities. We feel precious metals could continue to be an asset to own in 2026 and march to much higher highs due to 3 main factors.

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January 2026 Brief – Maximum Pressure

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Tariff War 2.0, or Territory War 1.0 if you prefer, is in full swing and has potential to cause significant near-term market disruptions. While we typically preach that politics matters less to the markets than to us personally, that was before politics was wielding such a heavy hand regarding regulations, taxation, tariffs, and the global world order. 2026 has started with rapid-fire policy-by-tweet, of which we are left attempting to decipher what is inflated hyperbole and what may be a real priority to be implemented. One of our themes for 2026 is “don’t fight the admin,” like the adage “don’t fight the Fed,” it means if policy is going to change market dynamics – don’t fight the direction that policy is flowing.

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