Special Update – What Happened In Venezuela?

At approximately 2am Friday Evening 1/2/26, US forces launched a large scale “air, land and sea” military attack on Venezuela involving at least 150 aircraft and capturing current President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, who are currently on route to New York to be held and charged on drug crimes. The Justice Department is charging them, and 5 others with roles in the drug-trafficking network called Cartel de los Soles and helping move large shipments of cocaine to the USA. This is one of the first US led regime changes in the last 30 years and does follow the script of “Operation Just Cause” in Jan 1990 to remove Manuel Noriega from Panama. And in a twist of fate, the arrest occurred 36 years to the day of the arrest of Manuel Noriega.

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Q1 2026 Market Outlook

Bull, Bear or Badger?
Q1 2026 Market Outlook

“Invincibility lies in the defense; the possibility of victory in the attack.” – Sun Tzu The Art of War

2026 is somehow feeling even more uncertain than 2025, which is a very high bar. It’s easy to forget the many monumental events that occurred this year including the DeepSeek AI scare in January, tariff rollout and subsequent market tantrum in April, wars, unrest, and a litany of events that make your head spin trying to recall them all. Our outlook for 2025 was titled “Piloting Through Noise” and somehow that underestimated the amount flak that would be thrown at the market. Our 2025 outlook had a year-end target of 7,100 on the S&P 500 (implying about a 15% return when we wrote it) and Fed Funds upper bound of 4.00%. This year will end with the S&P hovering around 6,800 (as of 12/15/25) and the Fed Funds upper bound at 3.75% – missed it by 1 cut and a tail off in the rally. Equity markets showcased their ability to ascend a growing wall of worry without breaking a sweat, as all those significant events and announcements did not derail the rally. A reminder that markets care much less about politics than we do personally.

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