Q2 2025 Market Outlook

Rapid Recalibration
Q2 2025 Market Outlook

“Even the finest sword plunged into salt water will eventually rust.”- Sun Tzu

We entered the year cautiously bullish and flagged a policy error as a big potential risk to derail the market bull run – and boy, did that play out in Q1. While tax cuts, spending, or any sense of what the budget will look like is stuck in Congress, the market has been subjected to a large-scale game of chicken over tariff and trade which has raised the anxiety level significantly. Potential shifting alliances may pivot the US away from Europe and more towards Asia and Russia which could disrupt trade further if Europe pivots away from US trade in retaliation. The quick market sentiment change has caused the Magnificent 7 to pull an Icarus, flying too high and falling sharply down to earth. As we are preparing to enter Q2, all we can advise is to be comfortable being uncomfortable this year.

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March 2025 Market Brief – Divergent Deglobalization

With the tariff war heating up from a simmer to a boil, it’s a good time to take a step back and look at how the world has shifted in the last few decades. The trend of de-globalization and onshoring (or near-shoring) has been accelerating since the global financial crisis and moving even faster in a post-COVID world. The pandemic showed just how vulnerable far-flung supply chains can be to disruption, which caused many companies to begin building in redundancies and bringing manufacturing closer to home. We would argue that peak global trade happened in the early 2000’s and since then, the world has been shifting away from free global trade.

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February 2025 Market Brief – The Uncertainty Premium

As we kick off February, markets are weathering multiple assaults on their bull run. We should be rejoicing a pickup in profit growth across multiple sectors with the S&P 500 on pace for a 10% growth in profits vs. 7% anticipated. But earnings are taking a backseat to politics as the Tariff War 2.0 began in full 2/1/25. The opening salvos of Tariff War 2.0 began against Canada and Mexico with a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada, exempting energy resources from Canada at 10%. China will also see a 10% tariff on all imports. Importantly, the US government is also suspending the “de-minimis” exemption for packages and shipments under $800 addressed to individuals. The de-minimis exemption has been a huge driver of global e-commerce – think Temu, Shein, or baubles from Esty international sellers. The point of the de-minimis exemption was to allow insignificant and small items to be disregarded for regulations, duties, or taxes in the context of international trade. Suspending this exemption makes international e-commerce exponentially more difficult and expensive.

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CNBC Worldwide Exchange – Greene: Technological advancements and lower costs lead to increased adoption and demand

Victoria Greene, founding partner and CIO at G Squared Private Wealth, discusses the recent market sell-off and emphasizes Jevons Paradox, explaining that technological advancements and lower costs lead to increased adoption and demand.

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