October has, so far, lived up to its spooky season moniker as markets fret over a barrage of bad news on multiple fronts. Yet equities continue to be resilient in the face of an unending stream of bad news. To summarize the macro environment: it’s ugly.
• First Brands & Tricolor bankruptcies shaking the banking and private credit markets. Are we looking at a looming banking crisis and deluge of bad loans?
• JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon warning on risks in private credit, stating glibly “when you see one cockroach there are probably more.”
• Government has been shut down for 20+ days with no end in sight. Most government employees have already missed one paycheck 10/15, and 10/31 looking awfully suspect. It’s estimated between 50-65% of the USA lives paycheck to paycheck, which could have a large impact on consumer spending.
• Trade war with China moved from a simmer back to a boil. Tariff threats abound.
• Argentina needed a $20B+ lifeline from the USA to stay afloat with its currency down -30% this year sparking concerns on possible debt defaults and contagion across Latin America.
Learn More from October 2025 Brief – The Return of Volatility