December 2023 Market Brief – A November to Remember

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December 2023 Market Brief

A November to Remember

ā€œI get knocked down, but I get up again, you are never gonna keep me down.ā€ Chumbawamba, Tubthumping,1997 .

November was one for the record books. As we round into the last trading weeks of the year, and markets are now wobbling a bit after the fast and furious rally off the October bottom, context on just how rare this recent rally was is important. In November, the S&P 500 was up almost 9%, NASDAQ up 11%, Dow up 8.77%, and even the beleaguered Small Caps were up 8.54%. Bonds and Gold also rallied along with stocks, but just how impressive was this rally? Stunningly impressive. This rally didnā€™t just snap a 3-month losing streak in most equity markets (Aug-Oct), it crushed it like a 450-foot homerun hit by Shohei Ohtani.

November Stats:

  • S&P 500 had the second-best November ever. The best November return was +12.9% in 1928.
  • The average S&P 500 November return is 1.6%, so almost 750bps above an average November return.
  • November was the 7th best month in the last 25 years. Since 1998 (25 years), only July 2022, April 2020 and Oct 2020 (COVID rebound rally), Oct 2011, April 2009 (Global Financial Crisis rebound), and March 2000 (Tech bubble rally) were stronger months than November 2023.
  • Top 25 monthly return in the history of the equity market, dating back to 1871.
  • All 20 Global equity markets (including emerging markets countries and international) were positive in November.
  • The 11th best month overall since 1950.
  • The best month for bonds since the 1980ā€™s with Treasury yields falling 52.5 bps.

What comes next for December? We likely got a little in front of ourselves and overbought, so I think the Santa Year-End rally came early and we bounce around more sideways or potentially slightly down from here. The Fed does have its thumb on the scale on where markets will go in the near term, but for now, itā€™s nice to know November was one for the ages. As they say, December is the most wonderful time of the year! Perhaps we can see this rally keep running with Fed support.