âFighter pilots have ice in their veins. They donât have emotions. They think, anticipate. They know that fear and other concerns cloud your mind from whatâs going on and what you should be involved in.ââ- Buzz Aldrin
As we wrap up another year of excellent returns, investor angst continued to rise even as markets powered higher, with the S&P 500 logging back-to-back 20%+ returns for the first time since 1997-1998. With 58 new highs reached in 2024, there remains investor anxiety about the sustainability of the rally. One must be thinking of Icarus and flying too high and too close to the sun, but we caution that this is still a normal bull and has plenty of gas to run higher. Bull markets do not typically end due to high valuations or old age, and while this one will eventually end, we feel it might still be 18-24 months before it begins to roll over. BUT, and for the first time we are adding the qualifier, there are certainly risks of a policy error in 2025, either fiscal or monetary, which is a tried-and-true way to kill off a bull market. So, we remain bullish, and our base case is the rally continues, however we would be remiss not to be ready for lurking risks. The key is to remain focused on what matters in the face of increasing noise.
I have been very good this year, with minimal volatility and producing 20% returns for the second year in a row! I included more friends in my rally this year, not just the Magnificent 7, and I brought along utilities, financials, and industrials. I even invited some of the old-school blue-chip names like WMT and AXP to join the rally party. I only dropped -8% one time all year, not even the normal -10% correction that would be expected. And with the VIX below 15, you can tell I have been consistent and upward trending. I was very nice this year, not naughty!
CNBC Worldwide Exchange – Greene: Do not knee-jerk in panic. Step back. Take a breath if JOLTS comes in hot or cold.
Victoria Greene, Founding Partner and Chief Investment Officer at G Squared Private Wealth, discusses the trading day ahead. She emphasizes the importance of not reacting impulsively to the JOLTS employment indicator due to its small sample size. Greene also talks about the potential for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, advocating for slow and steady cuts to stabilize the labor market and stimulate the economy.
CNBC Worldwide Exchange – Greene: If it was just the MAG seven, the rally would not be sustainable.
Victoria Greene, Founding Partner & CIO at G Squared Private Wealth, discusses the broader market rally, noting that small-cap stocks are outperforming tech giants. She sees opportunities in traditional stocks like Walmart, Costco, and IBM, and views the market as a bull run, urging investors to take advantage rather than stay on the sidelines.
October has garnered the reputation as a spooky month, and not just due to Halloween. The dreaded âOctober surpriseâ is typically a nasty political shock and the market has experienced extreme historical volThe election overhang is finally behind us, Q3 earnings season is about 90% done, and the bull market has survived its historically weakest period with nary a blemish. But even with all that noise comfortably behind us, there is a feeling now of, now what? And for many, the worry cycle has begun once again. The What-ifs are endless with a new administration looking to pivot policy and potential for unprecedented overhauls to government (DOGE- the Department of Government Efficiency) or the removal of the Fedâs independence loom in the distance. We often warn about waiting for disaster and betting on doom-and-gloom. And we caution investors about reading too deeply into geopolitical events as they are poor predictors of market directionality. atility in Octoberâs past. But we view October through a more positive lens; we are about to enter the strongest 6-month seasonal period for equity markets. Even in election years, November and December are often very strong, typically powered by the Santa Clause rally to close out the year. Â
CNBC The Exchange – Three Buys and a Bail. Victoria Greene, G Squared Private Wealth founding partner and CIO, joins CNBCâs âThe Exchangeâ to discuss four stocks: Walmart, Goldman Sachs, Energy Transfer, and First Solar.
