April 2024 Market Brief – War and Markets

Published on April 16, 2024

The Middle East recently went from simmering to a full-on boil with the Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel. This attack (in retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on the Iranian Embassy in Syria) raised the stakes that Israel could retaliate with a direct attack on Iran, and from there, all bets are off on controlling the situation and how it might escalate. War is a terrible thing, and the human cost and suffering goes beyond the economic consequences discussed here. However, our job is to advise on a potential market reaction and not to weigh in on politics.

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2024 Q2 Market Update

Published on March 27, 2024

“Damn the torpedoes – full speed ahead!’” – David Glasgow Farragut

Spring brings change to the air with occasionally violent and volatile shifts in weather as winter fades and summer waits around the corner. March comes in like a lion and leaves like a lamb the folklore intones, and markets often take heed. A more accurate rule of thumb for this market would be 2023 came in like a bear and left like a bull. Q1 has been a strong continuation of the year-end rally of 2023, and the Bulls are firmly in control. Yet much of the world seems like it’s waiting for another shoe to drop and for what feels like an
inevitable car crash. We would argue all this worrying may be for naught as history is strongly on the side of the Bull market continuing. We believe that this almost vertical ascension from the October 27th, 2023 low is not as abnormal as investors fear, although we do anticipate a bit more volatility in Q2 and the rest of the year.

There is plenty of historical precedence of this type of market run. Market bottoms are often not believed, not trusted, and constantly seconded-guessed. We too were skeptical in October and November last year, but rather grudgingly (at first) had to acknowledge the turn and reposition. Since the October lows, we have seen:
– 100 total trading days. Almost 2:1 up to down day ratio with:
o 36 down days since 10/27/23 though 3/22/24
o 64 up days since 10/27/23 through 3/22/24
– 0nly 4 down days > -1%, NONE with a daily drawdown >-2%
– Longest streak (273 days through 3/22) without a -2%+ drawdown, longest since 1918

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