Q1 2026 Market Outlook

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Bull, Bear or Badger?
Q1 2026 Market Outlook

“Invincibility lies in the defense; the possibility of victory in the attack.” – Sun Tzu The Art of War

2026 is somehow feeling even more uncertain than 2025, which is a very high bar. It’s easy to forget the many monumental events that occurred this year including the DeepSeek AI scare in January, tariff rollout and subsequent market tantrum in April, wars, unrest, and a litany of events that make your head spin trying to recall them all. Our outlook for 2025 was titled “Piloting Through Noise” and somehow that underestimated the amount flak that would be thrown at the market. Our 2025 outlook had a year-end target of 7,100 on the S&P 500 (implying about a 15% return when we wrote it) and Fed Funds upper bound of 4.00%. This year will end with the S&P hovering around 6,800 (as of 12/15/25) and the Fed Funds upper bound at 3.75% – missed it by 1 cut and a tail off in the rally. Equity markets showcased their ability to ascend a growing wall of worry without breaking a sweat, as all those significant events and announcements did not derail the rally. A reminder that markets care much less about politics than we do personally.

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December 2025 Brief – Coal or Candy?

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While seasonality and technical patterns can sometimes be a bit much – it seems like there is an indicator for EVERYTHING these days – there is a reason so many people follow them: they can work. As we approach the last few trading weeks of the year there are 3 famous indicators to look out for which may give insights into what is brewing in 2026. Data presented here was taken from the 2026 Stock Trader’s Almanac written by Jeffrey Hirsch.

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