Piloting Through Noise
Q1 2025 Market Update

“Fighter pilots have ice in their veins. They don’t have emotions. They think, anticipate. They know that fear and other concerns cloud your mind from what’s going on and what you should be involved in.’”- Buzz Aldrin

As we wrap up another year of excellent returns, investor angst continued to rise even as markets powered higher, with the S&P 500 logging back-to-back 20%+ returns for the first time since 1997-1998. With 58 new highs reached in 2024, there remains investor anxiety about the sustainability of the rally. One must be thinking of Icarus and flying too high and too close to the sun, but we caution that this is still a normal bull and has plenty of gas to run higher. Bull markets do not typically end due to high valuations or old age, and while this one will eventually end, we feel it might still be 18-24 months before it begins to roll over. BUT, and for the first time we are adding the qualifier, there are certainly risks of a policy error in 2025, either fiscal or monetary, which is a tried-and-true way to kill off a bull market. So, we remain bullish, and our base case is the rally continues, however we would be remiss not to be ready for lurking risks. The key is to remain focused on what matters in the face of increasing noise.

Learn More from Q1 2025 Market Outlook