July 2025 Brief – USA vs. Everybody Else

Tariff war 2.0 is right around the corner; on August 1st, blanket tariffs on imports from at least 14 countries are set to take place absent new trade deals. Markets are starting to get a bit worried that this will play out like April’s Liberation Day announcements on 4/2. Back in April, the S&P 500 fell over -11% in 3 days before a 90-day reprieve for negotiation was announced. We are back into a similar situation with August 1st now the deadline to watch and many proposed tariff rates actually higher than the 4/2 initial rates.

Learn More from July 2025 Brief – USA vs. Everybody Else


Q3 2025 Market Outlook

The Only Easy Day Was Yesterday
Q3 2025 Market Outlook

“But I’m not crazy, I’m just a little unwell/ I know right now you can’t tell/ But stay a while and maybe then you’ll see/ A different side of me./ I’m not crazy, I’m just a little impaired/ I know right now you don’t care/ But soon enough you’re gonna think of me/ And how I used to be.” – Matchbox 20, Unwell

Q2 has been Dickens-esque – the best of times and the worst of times – all in the span of 90 days. While the net overall movement in most markets has been benign, it hides the vast amount of volatility and angst suffered during this quarter.  A blink-and-you-missed-it bear market (on an intra-day basis) as well as continued shifting of policy sands has transformed 2025 from a comfortable bull market to navigating a mine field. We remain cautiously bullish, but wary of knee jerk reactions to policy announcements. Buried beneath the tweets are corporations still growing earnings and it’s hard to have a full recession while corporate profits are still growing.

Learn More from Q3 2025 Market Outlook