April 2025 Market Brief – Anatomy of a Bear

The tariff shock continues to reverberate throughout the market with the Trump administration continuing to defend its actions, focusing on, “sometimes you have to take medicine” as they seek to rebalance trade deficits and re-shore manufacturing and production back to the USA. This is a rapidly developing situation that is likely to see further downside until we get some negotiations. Tariffs are likely here to stay, even if they are rolled back less onerous.

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Q2 2025 Market Outlook

Rapid Recalibration
Q2 2025 Market Outlook

“Even the finest sword plunged into salt water will eventually rust.”- Sun Tzu

We entered the year cautiously bullish and flagged a policy error as a big potential risk to derail the market bull run – and boy, did that play out in Q1. While tax cuts, spending, or any sense of what the budget will look like is stuck in Congress, the market has been subjected to a large-scale game of chicken over tariff and trade which has raised the anxiety level significantly. Potential shifting alliances may pivot the US away from Europe and more towards Asia and Russia which could disrupt trade further if Europe pivots away from US trade in retaliation. The quick market sentiment change has caused the Magnificent 7 to pull an Icarus, flying too high and falling sharply down to earth. As we are preparing to enter Q2, all we can advise is to be comfortable being uncomfortable this year.

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